A Q&A with Santa, and Fleet Manager Mrs Claus, of North Pole Inc
From driverless cars and magnetic roads to robot truck convoys and the threat of vehicle-hackers, we look at what the future of automotive technology could hold for mankind.
In 1964, the great science fiction writer Isaac Asimov wrote that in 50 years we'd be living in a science fiction reality.?? Among his prophesies that have now arrived are instant coffee, robots to vacuum our homes and driverless cars.
Asimov saw the machine age coming, was fascinated by the concept of artificial intelligence and believed one day machines would successfully impersonate humans, a belief that alienated some of his peers, who held firm to the theory that machines, despite being capable of surpassing mental abilities in special areas, could never??learn like we do.
Their internal network is far simpler than a human brain, although they make up for this disadvantage because their "nerves" and neurons transmit messages electronically at the speed of light ??? millions of times faster than the chemical transmission in human brains.?? But impersonate humans??? Never.
Then, in 2014, 22 years after Asimov's death, his prediction came true.?? A computer passed the Turing test - the ultimate challenge of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to that of a human. Had he been alive Asimov could have been forgiven for saying "I told you so," as the machine's responses in a series of text conversations convinced human interrogators that it was human.
Could Asimov have been right all along??? Is it possible to create a 'robot car' that can act and think like a human, but without error?
Asimov was almost certainly pondering this question as he lived through the rapid evolution of vehicle safety equipment back in the post-war era. In the space of 10 years between 1958 and 1968, he would have seen the introduction of the seat belt, the padded dashboard, front-seat head restraints and mechanical anti-lock brakes. In the next decade came the first production cars with electronic ABS and driver's airbag and by the nineties auto safety research and development had already moved into the realms of pedestrian detection, adaptive cruise control and automation.
Robot vehicles were on the drawing board long before Google existed.
Of course, advances in software and sensors have been slower than in number-crunching capacity. And robots are still clumsy compared with a child in moving pieces on a real chessboard. But sensor technology, speech recognition, information searches and so forth are advancing apace, and the technology of artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing so fast that there's already intense debate on when, not if, machine (non-biological) intelligence will match the subtle and supple powers of human (biological intelligence).
How long will it be before machines have the hardware capacity to match human information processing? And how long before our technology has mastered the methods (the software) of human intelligence? The answer is much sooner than you think???
In practical terms, AI eliminates human error. It won't get tired or get the maths wrong and the technology can be humanised to analyse and make decisions based on human needs, behaviours, preferences and reactions.
This is the reason why cars that drive themselves are no longer distant shapes on a science fiction landscape and why the future of autonomous driving may be closer than previously thought.??
We're already on the way to driverless cars with Tesla Motors' latest dual-motor Model S, whose autopilot feature keeps the car safely in lane, obeys speed limits, avoids obstacles and parks itself in your garage. The likes of Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Hyundai, Audi, Daimler and GM are not far behind. In fact he automotive sector has seen the number of patent filings worldwide grow by double-digits year-on-year over the past five years.?? Rapid technological advancement in a wide range of areas including propulsion, navigation, handling, safety and security, ??is pushing the boundaries of possibility so far that the lines between science fiction and science fact and blurring.
Experts agree that between now and 2030, driverless features will pave the way for fully autonomous vehicles and the demand for drivers will begin to plummet. On-demand transportation services, where people can hail a driverless vehicle at any time will become a staple of everyday metro living.
Eventually, cars will drive anywhere, at all times, without human oversight, but between now then, other technological milestones will come and go and with them changes in the way man and machine interact will usher in a new age of insurance telematics we could hardly imagine.
And eventually humans will try and take back control of the machines, but more of that later.
In the immediate future, against a backdrop of global highway overload, the automotive ambivalence of the Gen Y crowd and emergence of car - and ride-sharing alternatives to vehicle ownership, which will all change the automotive game, we will begin to see extraordinary applications of machine thinking.
Rapid increases in sensor technology will force a shift in priority, giving the car final say, for example, applying the brakes even if the driver has the gas pedal floored.
Biometric Vehicle Access - unlocking and starting your car without anything more than your eyeball - will be the norm, as will active glass capable of displaying vibrant images, highlighting the next turn (as seen from your perspective, through the windshield) as you approach it.
Remote vehicle shutdown will enter the social consciousness, with insurance companies able to simply shut down stolen cars, ending police chases quickly and with little drama.?? And roads will have embedded magnetic fields that can charge electric vehicles while on the go, as well as designated lanes for driverless truck convoys???also known as "platoons"???which will become a surreal but all to common site on our motorways.
And along the way man-machine thinking will begin to take effect with insurance companies at first requiring comprehensive driver tracking and then driver scanning.
Humans will be plugged into seats that scan for physical, emotional and mental health signs and the data will be sent to insurance companies within a matter of seconds.?? If one is deemed unfit to drive insurance companies will be able to shut down the vehicle and/or demand a release fee.?? The pay-as-you-drive according to your daily risk factor scenario will have arrived.
And all this will happen before the first real legal implications of driverless cars start to bite, and before robots are able to cope with emergencies as well as a good driver and even before driverless cars can safely co-exist with existing vehicles in cities. The roads will be safer, but when the first driverless accidents occur they will create a legal minefield. Who should be held responsible ??? the "driver", the owner, or the designer?
Debates whether automated vehicles actually cannot totally eliminate human error, but rather just shift it from the driving to the programming and design, will resurface.?? In order for a vehicle to be able to handle a situation, the programmers have to have first envisioned it, or something similar enough to it, which will beg the question are the best humans still better than the automated system at carrying out emergency manoeuvres?
The other advantage that humans have, people will argue, is how they understand their environment. It amounts to context and perception, which is something that computers will still struggle to equal.
And of course, lost in the excitement of the driverless revolution - branded as the "safest way to travel" with "car accidents a thing of the past" - is the long forgotten, but ever present complication: human interference.
In this alternate, but all too plausible future, cars will automatically brake hard if a pedestrian runs into the road. Something some people could start to abuse, once they realise they'll be safe every time. The authorities and the insurance companies would then have a real dilemma - should the car brake, potentially causing traffic chaos? Or not?
After the "car-brakers", there could be the car-hackers, people who alter the in-built behaviours of their own vehicles, hacking their cars to break the automated speed limit, giving birth to a new sub-culture of boy-racer ??? something that people thought they would never see again after the driverless revolution.
And if this is not enough, what about the possibility of "ethical car hackers" ??? people capable of hacking your car for benefits like better fuel economy, a smoother ride, or a marginally shorter route.
And if this became more popular, car manufacturers would have no choice but to build it in, allowing users to select their own "driving style" preference ??? and for the first time since the driverless revolution, people would have individual control again.
Some would argue this scenario is the most likely science fiction reality in a future where man and machine must find a way to live and drive together in some kind of harmony, no matter how manufactured that may be.
As your fleet probably isn't autonomous at present, why not contact us today to find out how the latest fleet management technology can help you enhance fleet performance.
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